After weeks of economic chaos triggered by President Donald Trump’s radical tariff rollout, the administration this week scaled back tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%—and China followed suit, dropping its own tariffs from 125% to 10%. The result? Markets rallied, and the media briefly held its breath.

But let’s be clear: this is not a victory in any conventional sense. It’s a manufactured crisis followed by a partial retreat—a lighter punch to the gut after weeks of bruising blows.

Markets Cheer — For Less Pain, Not a Cure

Wall Street’s positive reaction had little to do with enthusiasm for 30% tariffs and everything to do with relief that it could have been worse. Markets, which nosedived after the April 2 tariff shock, rebounded on news of the rollback—not because conditions are favorable, but because investors believe Trump may not fully commit to his most extreme policies.

“It’s like Gob from Arrested Development punching Buster and calling it motivation,” quipped the author. “Now when you don’t get punched, it feels like fun.”

Economically, the damage is far from reversed. Analysts expect:

• A 2% rise in consumer prices, costing households an estimated $2,800 per year, per the Yale Budget Lab
• 456,000 additional job losses by year’s end
• A 0.4% increase in the unemployment rate
• Slower U.S. economic growth, compounded by government cuts

“There already has been some dampening effects,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual. She noted that budget reductions, especially those tied to the DOGE initiative, may further drag the economy.

Tariff Whiplash and Strategic Confusion

For companies and economists, the problem isn’t just the tariffs—it’s the uncertainty and volatility they represent. Trump’s rapid pivots and impulsive policy shifts have left businesses scrambling and strategists questioning the logic behind the chaos.

“What are the chances we have 90 days of calm?” asked economist Justin Wolfers. “What would really be good news is if someone just took the button away from him.”

The administration called the weekend’s development a breakthrough, claiming it alongside a so-called “landmark trade deal” with the UK—a deal that, in reality, is merely an agreement to discuss a future agreement.

Burning Down the House, Then Grabbing a Pail

Yes, a 115-point tariff reduction is better than nothing. But it’s worth remembering: this crisis was Trump’s own creation. He set the stage, lit the match, and only then offered partial relief—after inflicting pain on American businesses, consumers, and global supply chains.

So, is this a win? Only if we redefine success as damage control rather than progress.

As the piece concludes: “Trump set the house on fire and then fetched a single pail of water. It’s a start, perhaps. But some of the damage won’t be undone—and he’s still playing with matches.”